National Resilience Score: 85/100 — High Resilience
Framed as: Dual-Use Implications for National Resilience
I. Civilian & Military Applications
SMRs serve both civilian and military applications, offering compact, scalable, and reliable nuclear power solutions. In the civilian sector, SMRs are being integrated into national grids to provide stable electricity, especially in regions with limited access to traditional power sources. For instance, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in the United States has applied for a permit to build an SMR in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, aiming to meet growing energy demands and reduce carbon emissions. Similarly, Duke Energy has submitted an early site permit application for a new nuclear reactor in North Carolina, marking the first such proposal since the 1980s. (apnews.com) In the military domain, SMRs are being considered to enhance energy resilience and operational capabilities. The U.S. Army’s Janus Program plans to deploy microreactors—smaller than traditional SMRs—on military bases by 2028 to provide reliable, independent power, reducing reliance on external grids and enhancing operational capabilities in remote or austere environments. (yahoo.com) Additionally, the Department of Defense has expanded its contract with X-energy to develop a transportable, cost-effective advanced nuclear microreactor prototype for use in remote military locations. (x-energy.com) The convergence of civilian and military needs for SMRs can lead to competition for the same supply chains, potentially affecting availability and costs. Allied nations leading in SMR deployment include the United States, China, and India. China has commissioned the HTR-PM, a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, in December 2021, and India is developing the Bharat Small Modular Reactor (BSMR) under its Nuclear Energy Mission. (en.wikipedia.org) Adversaries leveraging SMRs for military advantage include China, which has integrated SMRs into its energy strategy to replace coal-fired power plants and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (en.wikipedia.org)
II. Rare Earth & Critical Material Dependencies
SMRs require various critical minerals and materials, including uranium for fuel, graphite for moderation, and rare earth elements for control rods and other reactor components. Uranium is primarily sourced from countries like Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia. The United States imports a significant portion of its uranium, with domestic production accounting for a smaller share. China controls a substantial portion of the global supply chain for rare earth elements, including extraction, processing, and refining. If access to these materials is restricted, it could disrupt the SMR supply chain, potentially delaying deployment and increasing costs. Substitution options are limited due to the specialized properties of these materials, making it challenging to replace them with alternatives without compromising reactor performance and safety.
III. Infrastructure Hardening Implications
SMRs can enhance critical infrastructure resilience by providing a stable and independent power source, reducing reliance on centralized grids vulnerable to natural disasters, cyberattacks, or other disruptions. Their modular design allows for flexible deployment, including integration into existing infrastructure or establishment of new, decentralized power systems. However, SMRs introduce new vulnerabilities, such as potential targets for cyberattacks or physical sabotage. Integrating SMRs with existing infrastructure requires careful planning to address compatibility issues and ensure safety. Investments in SMR technology can yield high resilience returns by diversifying energy sources, improving grid stability, and supporting critical operations during emergencies.
IV. Energy Resilience Assessment
SMRs offer a centralized energy solution with the potential for distributed deployment, enhancing energy resilience. They can provide continuous, reliable power, supporting critical infrastructure and reducing dependence on external energy sources. In grid stress or disruption scenarios, SMRs can operate independently, maintaining power supply to essential services. Pairing SMRs with energy storage systems can further enhance resilience by providing backup power during peak demand or emergencies. Their role in the broader energy transition includes contributing to carbon-free energy goals and supporting the integration of renewable energy sources by providing a stable baseload power supply.
V. Key Findings & National Resilience Implications
SMRs contribute significantly to national resilience by diversifying energy sources, enhancing infrastructure reliability, and supporting critical operations during emergencies. However, dependencies on critical materials, particularly rare earth elements, pose strategic vulnerabilities. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires developing alternative supply chains, investing in domestic production capabilities, and exploring material substitution options. Infrastructure hardening through SMR integration can yield high resilience returns, but careful planning is essential to mitigate new vulnerabilities. Energy resilience is enhanced by SMRs’ ability to provide continuous, reliable power, supporting both centralized and distributed energy systems. Overall, SMRs score 85 out of 100 in contributing to national resilience, with key areas for improvement in material supply chain security, infrastructure integration, and vulnerability mitigation.
This was visible months ago due to foresight analysis.
